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Though Punxatawny Phil said we should only have a few more weeks of winter, another blast of cold weather will usher in the month of March for most of the country. We’ll check the temperature forecast coming up at the end of this report.
From the US Energy Information Administration’s “Natural Gas Weekly Update”:
Net withdrawals from working gas totaled 177 billion cubic feet (Bcf) for the week ending February 15. Working natural gas stocks are 1.705 Tcf, which is nearly 18% lower than the five-year (2014–18) average for this week.
The natural gas plant liquids composite price at Mont Belvieu, Texas, rose by 38¢/MMBtu, averaging $6.75/MMBtu for the week ending February 20. The price of ethane fell by 3%. The price of natural gasoline, propane, butane, and isobutane rose by 8%, 9%, 9%, and 13%, respectively.
According to Baker Hughes, for the week ending Tuesday, February 12, the natural gas rig count decreased by 1 to 194. The number of oil-directed rigs rose by 3 to 857. The total rig count now stands at 1,051.
At the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), the price of the March 2019 contract increased about 12 cents today on Monday to reach $2.84/MMBtu. The price of the 12-month strip averaging March 2019 through February 2020 futures contracts has climbed to reach about $2.94/MMBtu .
Venture Global LNG, Inc. announced Friday that the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) has issued the Order Granting Authorizations under Sections 3 and 7 of the Natural Gas Act for the company’s Venture Global Calcasieu Pass LNG export facility and associated TransCameron Pipeline in Cameron Parish, Louisiana.
“With our FERC order in hand and our project contracted with binding 20-year sale and purchase agreements (SPAs) with Shell, BP, Edison S.p.A., Galp, Repsol and PGNiG, we plan to immediately commence construction activities in Louisiana in close coordination with FERC and other agencies,” Co-CEOs Bob Pender and Mike Sabel jointly stated. “This milestone is the culmination of years of effort, and we are proud of the excellent work done by our regulatory, environmental, legal and engineering teams. We are excited to begin construction of our Calcasieu Pass project and deliver low-cost LNG to our global customers in 2022.”
The 10 MTPA nameplate Calcasieu Pass facility will employ a comprehensive process solution from GE Oil & Gas, LLC, part of Baker Hughes, a GE company (BHGE) that utilizes mid-scale, modular, factory-fabricated liquefaction trains. Venture Global has executed an integrated turnkey EPC contract with Kiewit to design, engineer, construct, commission, test and guarantee the Calcasieu Pass facility.
The company is also developing the 20 MTPA nameplate Plaquemines LNG export facility and associated Gator Express Pipeline in Plaquemines Parish, Louisiana. The Plaquemines LNG facility received its draft Environmental Impact Statement on November 13, 2018 and expects to receive its final Environmental Impact Statement on May 3, 2019, according to the Notice of Schedule for Environmental Review issued by FERC on August 31, 2018. FERC has established a 90-day Federal Authorization Decision Deadline of August 1, 2019. Plaquemines LNG has executed a binding 20-year SPA with PGNiG.
A late February surge of cold weather will dominate the northern states to begin this week. Let’s review the latest critical notices from the natural gas pipeline companies’ electronic bulletin board systems:
Attention All ANR Shippers,
Effective gas day Monday 2/25/2019, Intraday 1 cycle and continuing thru gas day Wednesday 2/27/2019, in order to preserve system integrity and to ensure ANR is able to meet scheduled delivery commitments to all locations in ML7; ANR is, in accordance with the General Terms and Conditions, declaring an “Extreme Condition” as that term is defined in ANR’s FERC Gas Tariff §6.1, lowering the Swing Percentage from 10% to 5 %.
ANR is requesting, in accordance with §6.6.4 of its FERC Gas Tariff, that all receipt and delivery services, excluding ETS and FTS-3 services, to be at a uniform hourly flow rate over a twenty-four (24) hour period. ETS and FTS-3 shippers are required to be at their contractually agreed upon hourly rate.
Requests for operational flexibility with regard to variable hourly flow rates will be denied. All shippers must adhere to the flow rates applicable to the rate schedule of their nominated contract. Nominations on FTS-3 and ETS contracts to Secondary delivery gates must flow at an even-hourly rate
Requests for ITS-3 service will not be scheduled on ANR’s contiguous system in ML7,. Additionally, requests for Interruptible and Overrun delivery service on Rate Schedules ITS and IWS through Bridgman Westbound, Loc ID 226625, Sandwich Northbound, Loc Id 359925 and Crystal Falls-Fortune LK Loc Id 11661, WILL NOT be scheduled.
ANR is also reminding all MBS shippers that volumes not within operating tolerances and not at a uniform hourly flow rate of 1/24th of scheduled nominations will not be permitted.
In addition, ANR is not allowing any “Unauthorized Overrun” under Rate Schedules FTS-1, FTS-2, FTS-3, FTS-4, FTS-4L, STS and ETS. Please refer to ANR’s FERC Gas Tariff under each rate schedule for further detail.
As a reminder, per ANR’s FERC Gas Tariff §6.6.3, “Shipper will not have the right to receive quantities of Gas that it has not simultaneously nominated and delivered to Transporter at Receipt Point(s).”
ANR reserves the right to revoke any conditionally approved operational flexibility.
To clarify, ANR is NOT declaring an Operational Flow Order (OFO) at this time.
Columbia Gas Transmission:
As an update to the Critical Days currently in effect in Operating Areas 1, 4, and 10, shippers are advised that due to forecasted colder temperatures, storage levels, and increased market demands beginning Wednesday, February 27, 2019, Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC (TCO) may issue Transport Critical Days for deliveries to all Operating Areas and Storage Critical Days for withdrawals (MDWQ overruns) for all Operating Areas. TCO will post the Critical Day notices, if warranted, on Tuesday, February 26, 2019.
Also, TCO may have limited ability to handle non-ratable takes in the impacted Market Areas during this period. Please monitor the Daily Capacity Posting for details.
TRANSPORT CRITICAL DAY: If a Transport Critical Day is called for Wednesday, February 27, 2019 until further notice, the following daily Transport Critical Day penalty will apply:
Applicable Penalty: TFE – If Shipper’s takes on any Day exceed the greater of 103 percent or 1,000 Dths more than its Total Firm Entitlement (TFE), Shipper shall be assessed and pay a penalty based on the higher of: (i) a price per Dth equal to three times the midpoint of the range of prices reported for “Columbia Gas, Appalachia” as published in Platts Gas Daily price survey for all such quantities in excess of its TFE, or (ii) a price per Dth equal to 150 percent of the highest midpoint posting for either: Mich Con City-gate, Transco, Zone 6 Non-N.Y., or Texas Eastern, M-2 Receipts as published in Platts Gas Daily price survey for all such quantities in excess of its TFE. Section 19.1(ii) penalties will only be assessed on days in which the daily spot price of gas exceeds three times the midpoint of the range of prices reported for “Columbia Gas, Appalachia.
NOTE: Takes in excess of Total Firm Entitlements (“TFE”) are penalized on Critical Days based on takes exceeding the aggregate daily amount of gas that TCO is obligated to deliver to a shipper under the shipper’s applicable rate schedule. Each applicable rate schedule outlines this delivery obligation and, consequently, a shipper’s TFE.
STORAGE CRITICAL DAY: If a Storage Critical Day is called for Wednesday, February 27, 2019 until further notice, all firm storage services will be fully available. Interruptible storage withdrawals (SIT and ISS), excess FSS withdrawals, and PAL loans and unparks will not be available if delivered in the impacted operating areas.
– FSS MDWQ- Withdrawn quantities in excess of 103% of the applicable contract MDWQ will be assessed a penalty based on a price per Dth equal to three times the midpoint rate for “Columbia Gas, Appalachia,” posted in Gas Daily.
– FSS MMWQ – Monthly Withdrawal Quantities that exceed 30% (February Limit) of SCQ will be assessed a penalty of $5.00 per Dth.
– FSS SCQ – If withdrawals from storage result in the FSS contract having a negative SCQ balance, a penalty of $5 per Dth will be assessed.
Dominion Gas Transmission:
Due to current weather forecasts, effective with the start of gas day (10:00AM ECT) Tuesday, February 26, 2019,there will be no interruptible or secondary firm capacity available at systems north of Sabinsville Junction in Pennsylvania and Stateline facilities in the northern portion of the DETI operating area, including, but not limited to, the following delivery points until further notice:
Corning Natural Gas 21000; New York State Electric & Gas 20700; Arlington Storage (Seneca) 20720; Rochester Gas and Electric 20600; Allegany Generation 23632; Niagara Mohawk 20500 and 20550; Fillmore Gas 23600; National Fuel Gas Distribution 20900; Steuben Storage 90005; Alliance/Lower Leroy 30005; Woodhull 23700; Indeck Silver Springs 30001; Tioga UGI Storage 90002; Tioga R-Gate 90008; Cornell 30170; Bethlehem Energy Center 30200; Iroquois Canajoharie 41101; Empire Lysander 40801.
In addition, deliveries off DETI at the following locations will be limited to primary only:
Tennessee-Brookview 40103; Tennessee-North Sheldon 40115; Tennessee-Morrisville 40114; Tennessee-Marilla 40113; Tennessee-Sabinsville 40120.
Please note that “Unauthorized Overrun Charges – Daily” rate of $10.00/dth will apply to deliveries made in excess of FT and FTNN entitlements while these restrictions are in place.
Florida Gas Transmission:
MARCH 2019 — FGT SUPPLY AREA MAINTENANCE IN ZONE 3
FGT will continue pipeline maintenance near FGT Compressor Station 10 in southern Mississippi. This maintenance is expected to continue through the end of gas day March 31, 2019. During this maintenance FGT will schedule up to 1,150,000 MMBtu/day through Station 10. During normal operations FGT schedules up to 1,300,000 MMBtu/day through Station 10.
FGT will perform pipeline maintenance near FGT Compressor Station 11 in southern Alabama. This maintenance is scheduled to begin March 1, 2019 and to continue through the end of gas day March 31, 2019. During this maintenance FGT will schedule up to 3,050,000 MMBtu/day through Station 11. During normal operations FGT schedules up to 3,250,000 MMBtu/day through Station 11.
Natural Gas Pipeline Company of America (NGPL):
Natural has experienced a suspected leak on its Amarillo Mainline #3 in Hutchinson County, Texas in Natural’s Midcontinent Zone. This is a Force Majeure event that requires Natural to temporarily reduce the maximum operating capacity northbound, thus limiting Natural’s throughput capacity from Segment 8 into the Midcontinent Zone as well as the Affected Area segments 5/6 flowing northbound into Segment 10 of the Midcontinent Zone.
Additionally, transports associated with storage withdrawals will be impacted. The Permian Pool (LOC 25077) and the Midcontinent Pool (LOC 25078) are located south (upstream) of the constraint.
As such, effective for gas day Monday, February 25, 2019, Evening Cycle, and continuing until further notice, Natural will schedule Primary Firm and Secondary in-path Firm transports to no less than 87% of contract MDQ from the Permian Zone (Segment 8) flowing into the Midcontinent Zone. Actual nomination levels and changes in pipeline conditions could result in changes to the percentages scheduled (lower or higher) on subsequent gas days. AOR/ITS and Secondary out-of-path Firm transports continue to not be available for the duration of this restriction.
For the Affected Area 5/6, effective for gas day Monday, February 25, 2019, Intraday 1 Cycle, and continuing until further notice (previously Monday, February 25, 2019, Evening Cycle), Natural will schedule a total receipt point capacity of 86,000 dth per day (formerly 186,000 dth per day) in the Affected Area. AOR/ITS, Secondary out-of-path Firm transports and Secondary in-path Firm transports will not be available.Natural will be required to schedule down nominations for Primary Firm transports.
Northern Natural Gas:
A System Overrun Limitation (SOL) has been called for all Market Area zones (ABC, D and EF) with 0% System Management Service (SMS) available for Gas Day Tuesday, February 16, 2019, due to lower than normal forecasted system weighted temperatures.
Effective for nominations made for transport during the Gas Day Tuesday February 26, 2019, due to planned maintenance, Sabine Pipe Line LLC is limiting total receipt nominations to a maximum of 100,000 MMBtu/day at the following Henry Hub receipt point:
COLUMBIA GULF/HENRY HUB 11202
Please continue to monitor this website for updates.
Tennessee Gas Pipeline:
OFO DAILY CRITICAL DAY 1 FOR ALL AREAS EAST OF STA 245 AND STA 325 EFFECTIVE 2-26-19
Due to a forecast of colder temperatures moving into areas of the Northeast with associated higher demand,for the Gas Day of Tuesday, February 26, 2019, Tennessee is implementing an OFO Daily Critical Day 1 for all areas east of STA 245 on the 200 Line and all areas east of STA 325 on the 300 Line for all Balancing Parties (including LMS-PA, SA contracts acting as balancing parties, LMS-MA, and LMS-PL balancing parties). This action is pursuant to Article X, Section 4 of the General Terms and Conditions of Tennessee’s FERC Gas Tariff.
All delivery point operators in all areas east of STA 245 on the 200 Line and all areas east of STA 325 on the 300 Line are required to keep actual daily takes out of the system equal to or less than scheduled quantities regardless of their cumulative imbalance position. All receipt point operators in all areas east of STA 245 on the 200 and all areas east of STA 325 on the 300 Line are required to keep actual daily receipts into the system equal to or greater than scheduled quantities regardless of their cumulative imbalance position.
In addition, it is essential that delivery point operators schedule gas at meters commensurate with takes within the affected areas. All LMS-PA, SA contracts acting as balancing parties, LMS-MA and LMS-PL Balancing Parties are required to maintain an actual daily flow rate not exceeding 2% of scheduled quantities or 500 dths, whichever is greater for under-deliveries into the system and over-takes from the system. Customers will be assessed a rate of $5.00 plus the applicable Regional Daily Spot Price per dekatherm for that portion of physical quantities related to under-deliveries by receipt point operators and over-takes by delivery point operators which exceed this tolerance.
Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line Company:
Subject:Operational Flow Order – Imbalance
Transco recently provided notice of limited flexibility to manage imbalances and recommended shippers maintain a concurrent balance of receipts and deliveries. In order to ensure system integrity, maintain safe operations, manage imbalances, and handle within-the-day volatility, Transco is issuing an Imbalance Operational Flow Order (OFO).
Beginning: Tuesday, February 26, 2019 and until further notice
OFO Areas: Zone 6
Tolerance %: 10% for gas Due from Shippers or Due to Shippers
The National Weather Service six-to-ten day temperature forecast predicts another blast of artic cold weather beginning next weekend into the first few days of March as most of the lower 48 states will be at or below normal temperatures. Only Florida and the desert Southwest will escape the cold temperatures through March 7.
Thanks for checking out the Monday edition of GasNewsOnline.com. We’ll return on Thursday to give you an update on pipeline conditions heading into the weekend.
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